Eskom says it is working to prevent load shedding this winter, citing improved operational performance and the anticipated addition of new generation capacity to the grid.
For load shedding to be avoided, unplanned outages must remain below 13 gigawatts (GW).
“If outages increase to 15GW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at stage 2 – an improvement over the prior winter’s worst-case prediction of stage 5 load shedding,” Eskom Group chief executive, Dan Marokane, said on Monday.
Addressing a media briefing on Eskom’s State of the System for the 2024/2025 financial year, Marokane said the improved winter outlook is due to a 3.1GW decrease in unplanned outages compared to the previous year.
As a result, the forecast range has been lowered to 13-15GW, down from 14 -17GW in winter 2024.
Last winter had no load shedding, with average unplanned outages at 12.3GW – significantly below the winter 2024 base-case projection of 14GW.
“This year’s winter outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency. Load shedding was the lowest in Eskom’s last financial year (FY) 2025 than in the previous two years.
“In FY 2025, we delivered power 96% of the time. In the previous year, the figure was just 9.9%. Our diesel open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) were utilised approximately 50% less in FY 2025 compared to the two previous financial years, saving around R16 billion,” the CEO said.
Against this progress, Eskom has seen some setbacks in operational excellence, as evidenced by the recent load shedding requirements between January to April 2025.
“A targeted plan has been put in place to reinforce operational discipline and accelerate recovery initiatives to address the root causes related to the recent load shedding events,” Marokane said.
Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said Koeberg unit 1 has received the long-term operating go-ahead from the regulator to ensure 20 years of additional life.
“We have been able to restore Kusile unit 2 and 3. Kusile unit 1 will be placed back in its original form before the end of May. The three units at Kusile will give us [additional] megawatts (MW) during the winter period.
“Kusile unit 6 has been synchronised to the grid. It is yet to be in commercial operation. It is a technical issue. It is [providing electricity] and at times, it must be taken out to be fixed. Once it gets into commercial operation, we will get the long-term benefits of the unit.
“We plan to bring back Medupi unit 4 back to service during winter. It has been out of service for about four years. We are expecting to get about 800MW in the middle of winter,” Ramokgopa said.
The minister said load reduction will remain in place to protect the equipment and as a safety precaution to protect the lives of those who are close to the infrastructure when it gets overloaded due to rampant illegal connections.
From 1 April 2024 – 31 March 2025, Eskom implemented load shedding for 13 days compared to 329 and 208 in the two previous years, respectively.
Marokane said Eskom supplied South Africa with more electricity and reduced load shedding without the extensive use of diesel during the period under review.
“We had a 45% reduction in diesel consumption against the backdrop of the highest send out in the last three years and the lowest load shedding days.
“We used the OCGTs very tactically to support the high vulnerability and once we have our capacity, you will see the diesel expenditure going down significantly,” he said.
According to Eskom Group executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom has continued to maintain high levels of planned maintenance as part of efforts to improve fleet reliability in preparation for the high winter demand, while also meeting environmental licence conditions and regulatory requirements.
“We have evolved our Generation Recovery Plan to ensure our data-led analysis into the delays in returning units from outages on time, which has caused our fleet to be constrained and not able to accommodate a sudden loss of units, receives intense management focus, as we use our ‘high challenge, high support’ culture to support our teams to rectify this situation,” Nxumalo said.
